Is politics downstream from culture? If so, what is culture downstream from? Your political beliefs were being shaped by your biology and nervous system long before you could ever articulate them. From childhood socialization to the media you consume, your environment acts as the training data fed into your mind's innate algorithm, eventually crystallizing into the learned parameters that we ultimately experience and express as our political identity.
read more →The forces outside your control define the distribution of possible futures. Thirteen macro questions—spanning geopolitics, energy, AI, inflation, interest rates, semiconductors, and climate—each with four discrete scenarios, yield 52 possible worlds with probability weights assigned via hybrid human-AI forecasting.
read more →Ignoring expected value isn't a cognitive bias, it's the correct adaptation to reality's structure. How we consider outcomes across the entire distribution shapes everything from equity performance to political alignment, yet lacking shared language for distribution shape, it's routinely mislabeled as bias or conflated with fundamental forces.
read more →Popular equity models like CAPM and factor investing mistake results for drivers. They've become a self-referential exercise in fitting lines to past data while conflating the real and financial forces that actually move markets. I take a stab at looking at which causal forces created these prices in the first place.
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