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Interactive
Interactive Quiz

the PRISM quiz

Would you have voted for Lincoln? What about FDR? Are your politics driven by ideology, process, or something else entirely? With which government on Earth today are you most aligned? Take the first political quiz built on a generative framework—and see how you behave in different states of the world.

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function v form measurement error declaration v revelation
Essay

beneath the surface of belief

Is politics downstream from culture? If so, what is culture downstream from? Your political beliefs were being shaped by your biology and nervous system long before you could ever articulate them. From childhood socialization to the media you consume, your environment acts as the training data fed into your mind's innate algorithm, eventually crystallizing into the learned parameters that we ultimately experience and express as our political identity.

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declaration v revelation measurement error function v form
Essay

the cause of our politics

What would we have needed to know in order to predict the realignment of 2016? Better question: what would we need to know to shape the next one? This essay is about the 121 archetypes of political disposition, and why modeling them matters for anyone trying to persuade, mobilize, or hold a coalition together.

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exogenous refraction decomposition & distillation the four layers
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Interactive
Interactive Data

optimizing a stock portfolio across a distribution of futures

Sharpe Ratio is so 2010. Move beyond mean-variance optimization in this interactive tool, designing portfolios that account for the full distribution of possible outcomes across 13 different macro regimes, because your capital assets don't correlate on a single number.

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{experiencing v remembering} loss & uncertainty

the world in 2032:
13 exogenous regimes

The forces outside your control define the distribution of possible futures. Thirteen macro questions—spanning geopolitics, energy, AI, inflation, interest rates, semiconductors, and climate—each with four discrete scenarios, yield 52 possible worlds with probability weights assigned via hybrid human-AI forecasting.

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declaration v revelation second-best worlds decomposition & distillation
Coming Soon
Coming Soon

preamble: the lakes of matrisonia

Thousands of lakes, each with its own geology, its own tributaries, its own cycles of clarity and fog. The Matrisonians have built their civilization around these lakes, harvesting Matrisonium, the ore suspended in their lakes that fuels everything in their society. What do their concepts around understanding the stocks and flows of matrisonium have to teach us about political-economy here on earth?

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cycles, spirals, & their companions second-best worlds {experiencing v remembering}

the geometry of preference

Ignoring expected value isn't a cognitive bias, it's the correct adaptation to reality's structure. How we consider outcomes across the entire distribution shapes everything from equity performance to political alignment, yet lacking shared language for distribution shape, it's routinely mislabeled as bias or conflated with fundamental forces.

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{experiencing v remembering} loss & uncertainty second-best worlds

the end of capital pricing's geocentric era

Popular equity models like CAPM and factor investing mistake results for drivers. They've become a self-referential exercise in fitting lines to past data while conflating the real and financial forces that actually move markets. I take a stab at looking at which causal forces created these prices in the first place.

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decomposition & distillation function v form measurement error